Live Poker - Reality Check
Live Poker - Reality Check
Model the grind behind live cash assumptions: hand volume, rake, VPIP, premium hand frequency, and the real size of a target win rate.
Assumptions
Adjust the live-poker model.
100 hrs
20
$50
$1
$3
$0
20 %
35 bb/100
Reality check
One stat per row, based on the current assumptions.
Live poker sample
100 hrs live poker
Target pace
$21/hr after rake (7bb/hr, 35bb/100)
Big-blind profit
700bb
Dollar profit
$2,100 after rake
Won vs rake paid
$2,100 won after rake | $10,000 table rake watched | $1,111 seat share
No-rake equivalent
$3,211 ($32/hr, 54bb/100)
Calendar feel
~2 weeks to 1 month for many live players
Hands played
2,000 hands
Session count
20 five-hour sessions, or 10 ten-hour sessions
Total blinds paid
$889 forced money ($1 SB + $3 BB every 9 hands)
Table rake watched
$10,000 raked at $50 avg pot x $5 rake/hand
Rake in your VPIP pots
$2,000 across 400 hands you entered
VPIP hands
400 played at 20% VPIP
VPIP 20 reality
400 played, $2,000 rake in those pots
VPIP 15 reality
300 played, $1,500 rake in those pots
VPIP 10 reality
200 played, $1,000 rake in those pots
VPIP 05 reality
100 played, $500 rake in those pots
Flush draws flopped
10 two-card flush draws (2.6% of flops seen)
TPTK+ flopped
31 hands (7.6% of flops seen)
2nd pairs flopped
40 hands (9.9% of flops seen)
3rd pairs flopped
40 hands (9.9% of flops seen)
Underpairs flopped
5.5 hands (1.4% of flops seen)
Aces
9 AA dealt
Kings
9 KK dealt
Queens
9 QQ dealt
KK vs aces
0.4 times your KK runs into AA (3.9% when you hold KK)
QQ vs kings/aces
0.7 times your QQ runs into KK+ (7.7% when you hold QQ)
AK
24 AK combos
AK flops pair+
7.8 hit, 16 miss
AQ
24 AQ combos
AQ flops pair+
7.8 hit, 16 miss
Suited aces
72 Axs hands
Nut flushes made
2.3 nut flushes from 36 Axs flops seen (53.4% continue with FD/BDFD, 6.4% make by river)
Suited kings
66 Kxs hands excluding AKs
Suited connectors
42 54s-JTs hands
Suited broadway
60 suited broadway hands
Pocket pairs
118 pairs
Flopped sets
14 sets from those pairs
Run into 2P+ on flops
48 flop hands (11.9% with ~1.6 opponents seeing flop)
2P+ is an estimate using random-hand flop frequency and an estimated opponent count from VPIP. Actual live game texture depends on positions, player selection, ranges, and multiway frequency. Flop-class rows use exact random-hand enumeration and apply it to VPIP hands as a practical flops-seen estimate.